Chapter from the book: International Research Network on Organizing by Projects, . 2017. International Research Network on Organizing by Projects (IRNOP) 2017.
A nonlinear regression-based growth model based on the Gompertz S-shaped function is used to forecast cost profiles for ongoing projects experiencing overruns. Based on the standard approach to earned value management and earned schedule, a simple linear expression is derived for the forecast of the duration estimate, and the theoretical formula is validated by application to case projects. The model’s predictions are shown to be accurate, stable and reliable. We conclude with practical guidance for project managers.
Nannini, G et al. 2017. Improving the accuracy of project estimates at completion using the Gompertz function. In: International Research Network on Organizing by Projects, (ed.), International Research Network on Organizing by Projects (IRNOP) 2017. Sydney: UTS ePRESS. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5130/pmrp.irnop2017.5670
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Published on June 14, 2017