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  • Improving the accuracy of project estimates at completion using the Gompertz function

    Giulia Nannini Roger D. H. Warburton Alberto De Marco

    Chapter from the book: International Research Network on Organizing by Projects, . 2017. International Research Network on Organizing by Projects (IRNOP) 2017.

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    A nonlinear regression-based growth model based on the Gompertz S-shaped function is used to forecast cost profiles for ongoing projects experiencing overruns. Based on the standard approach to earned value management and earned schedule, a simple linear expression is derived for the forecast of the duration estimate, and the theoretical formula is validated by application to case projects. The model’s predictions are shown to be accurate, stable and reliable. We conclude with practical guidance for project managers.

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    How to cite this chapter
    Nannini, G et al. 2017. Improving the accuracy of project estimates at completion using the Gompertz function. In: International Research Network on Organizing by Projects, (ed.), International Research Network on Organizing by Projects (IRNOP) 2017. Sydney: University of Technology Sydney ePress. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5130/pmrp.irnop2017.5670
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    This is an Open Access chapter distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (unless stated otherwise), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Copyright is retained by the author(s).

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    This book has been peer reviewed. See our Peer Review Policies for more information.

    Additional Information

    Published on June 14, 2017

    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.5130/pmrp.irnop2017.5670


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